JOHN: TOMORROW IS THE END OF VOTING IN CANADA TO ELECT A NEW PRIME MINISTER.

THE BIG ISSUE WITH THE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN U.S.-CANADIAN RELATIONS, ESPECIALLY PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFF SCRIPT THE TWO FRONT RUNNERS ARE THE LIBERAL READY LEADER AND CURRENT PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY AND THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER.

SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, OPINION POLLS HAVE GONE FROM SHOWING A COMMANDING CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEAD TO A NARROWER BUT CONSISTENT LIBERAL PARTY LEAD.

DAVID FRUM IS A WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC AND HOSTS A SHOW.

HE IS A NATIVE AND PART-TIME RESIDENT OF CANADA.

MORE THAN A 20-POINT PERCENTAGE SWING.

WHAT HAPPENED?

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT WHY THE CONSERVATIVES WERE SO FAR AHEAD.

CONOMIC PROGRESS HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTING OVER THOSE 10 YEARS.

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HAS SLOWED.

INCOMES DID NOT RISE.

THE TRUDEAU STRATEGY FOR OVERCOMING THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY PRODUCTIVELY WAS TO INVITE MANY MORE IMMIGRANTS TO COME.

CANADA'S IMMIGRATION RATES WERE ALREADY HIGH.

HE EFFECTIVELY DOUBLED THEM.

CANADIANS FIND THEMSELVES WITH POOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, HUGE INFLOW OF IMMIGRANTS, RISING HOUSE PRICES, MUCH DISAPPOINTMENT.

THAT PUT THE CONSERVATIVES AHEAD UNTIL TRUMP BEGAN TO OPEN HIS MOUTH.

JOHN: WHAT HAPPENED AFTER TRUMP OPENED HIS MOUTH?

>> THERE ARE ALWAYS FRICTIONS THAT HAVE TO BE RESOLVED.

TRADITIONALLY, THEY HAVE BEEN RESOLVED THROUGH NEGOTIATION AMICABLY.

IT IS ALSO ABOUT SECURITY, POLICING, ENVIRONMENTAL.

TRUMP BEGAN TO PUT DEMANDS ON CANADA.

THEY WERE IRRATIONAL DEMANDS.

THAT HAS RALLIED CANADIANS TO THE FLAG AND MADE CANADIANS LOOK AROUND TO SAY WHICH POLITICIAN LOOKS LEAST LIKE TRUMP AND THAT IS THE GUY WE ARE GOING TO BACK.

JOHN: MARK CARNEY AND THE OTHER.

>> HE IS A VERY DYNAMIC HOUSE OF COMMONS PERFORMER.

HE MADE HIS MARK ON HOUSING PRICES.

HE NEEDS TO APPEAL TO YOUNGER VOTERS WHO HAVE BEEN PRICED OUT OF HOUSING MARKETS.

THAT WAS THE CORE OF HIS MESSAGE, ECONOMIC CHANGE, BRING DOWN HOUSING PRICES SO YOU CAN START A FAMILY.

THERE IS ALSO A MINORITY IN THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY THAT HAS RESPONDED TO SOME TRUMP LIKE THEMES.

THEY SENSED CANADIANS WERE NOT AS ANTI-TRUMP AS CANADIAN VOTERS AT A TIME WHEN TRUMP WAS SAYING I WANT TO DESTROY CANADA.

THE BANKER STEPPED IN AS THE CLEAN FACE TO REPLACE JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND A I WILL STAND UP TO TRUMP AND DELIVER -- SAYING I WILL STAND UP TO TRUMP AND SAY NO TO TRUMP.

I AM NOT SURE THE CANADIANS WILL SAY NO TO EVERYTHING.

JOHN: WHEN AMERICANS HEAR LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE, THEY THINK THEY ARE ANALOGOUS TO THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS.

IS THAT RIGHT?

>> NOT AT ALL.

THE LIBERAL PARTY'S MOST EFFECTIVE IN THE DEMOCRATIC WORLD.

THEY ARE ALL ABOUT WINNING.

THEY ARE VERY UNLIKE THE DEMOCRATS.

THERE IS NOT A THING THEY STAND FOR THAT THEY WOULD NOT TURN UPSIDE DOWN TO HELP WIN VOTES.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IS MUCH MORE REGIONALLY BASED AND FRACTIOUS.

IT HAS A HIGHER FLOOR OF SUPPORTERS BUT A LOWER CEILING.

IT IS A MUCH LESS IDEOLOGICAL PARTY.

THE LIBERALS MUCH MORE RUTHLESS THAN DEMOCRATS.

THAT IS WHY YOU CAN HAVE SUCH A BIG MOVEMENT BECAUSE IT IS NOT THAT POLARIZED A COUNTRY.

JOHN: WE HAVE HAD RECORD EARLY VOTING IN CANADA.

DOES THAT REFLECT VOTER INTEREST?

>> IT REFLECTS TWO THINGS.

THE TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE HIGH.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND FOR THE VOTE TO SPLINTER INTO SMALLER PARTIES.

THIS ELECTION LOOKS TO BE A RECONCENTRATION OF THE TWO BIG PARTIES IN A WAY CANADA HAS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1980'S, MAYBE NOT SINCE THE 1950'S.

JOHN: THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> THANK YOU.