Well, with the election now one week away, candidates are in their final stretch of the campaign.

At the top of the ticket, the focus is on battleground states like our neighbor, Pennsylvania.

And depending on which poll you check or believe, the tides may be turning for the major party candidates.

New Jersey, by the way, hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate in nearly 40 years.

That was George H.W.

Bush.

But it is home to one of the few dozen competitive House races in the country.

Over in the seventh district, between incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr. And Democratic challenger Sue Altman, the winner of that race in a closely watched swing district could determine control of Congress.

For more on that and what else we'll be watching come Election Day, we turn to Michael Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for new Jersey Politics at Rider University.

And Michael, you are also committed to being here with us for the duration on election night.

So let me get your take first.

We just got these numbers today.

15% of all registered voters in new Jersey have already cast a ballot.

How much does that matter in a blue state like this?

But in a high consequence election like Bergen?

It's a great question because we have not had early voting in person, early voting in a presidential race before we instituted it in new Jersey in 2021.

And pianist, it's been pretty lightly used in the three years since then.

So this is the first time we are using it in a presidential race being heavily used.

Vote by mail is also being heavily used.

And the one thing we can say is that Republicans are more engaged in the early vote this time.

I think Trump has not discouraged, his supporters from using early voting.

He's encouraged them this time.

And so we're seeing, a lot of Republicans voting, a lot of Democrats voting.

And quite frankly, we it's not as useful as usual because it's not overwhelmingly Democrats.

So there's really not much we can tell.

We don't know how independent votes are breaking.

We don't know if there were Republican defections.

So all we know at this point is that there's a lot of enthusiasm for this, which from an election standpoint.

Right?

I mean, do you want to see that participation at every level?

But for someone who's tracking it or analyzing it, it definitely just in terms of what we can tell, that's very difficult.

What else are you watching for come election night, both nationally and in new Jersey?

So the battleground states across the country are the ones that are really hard to tell what's going on.

We can start to see some movement in the early vote.

Again, the early vote is instructive when it's disproportionate.

So I think Trump has had more success with the early vote in places like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Georgia.

So the question at this point that you really want to watch for is how Harris is doing in those blue wall states of, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If she can hold them, as other Democrats have in the recent past, then that's 270 electoral votes.

That's enough for her to win the Electoral College just by the barest of margin.

But he still has more paths to victory, it seems.

Absolutely.

Yeah.

Every one of those Sunbelt states that he picks up, is another path, in which he can win without a blue wall state.

Yeah.

Okay, let's bring it back home here.

Obviously, the Altman/ Kean race has taken up much of the oxygen for us.

What are we expect there?

Because there's been a lot of campaign spending, a blitz of media ads in these last couple of weeks.

Yeah.

Altman really picked it up at the end here by keeping it as close as she has.

And by showing in those polls that she's within a point or two.

She has now attracted national Democratic money.

There's an investment, a late investment in her race.

There's a lot of New York ads being bought on her behalf.

That money had been there on the Republican side for Kaine before.

But there's really a recognition now on the part of both parties that this is a winnable race.

And so what I think we're watching is, how big of a vote does Trump get, or does Harris Harris get out of that district?

Kaine is usually somebody who's pretty content to let this race be nationalized, be caught up in whatever is happening nationally.

And so, I think if you see Trump get a big vote out of the district, that's going to bode well for for Kaine, he's going to get swept in on that.

If Harris gets a big lift out of the district, and we've not seen a big indication so far of a big lead for either one of them in any of the pre-election polling that we've seen, we've seen a little bit of a lift for Harris or a little bit for Trump.

But if somebody gets a big vote, then they could pull that member of Congress, their candidate, in with them for the House and how, if at all, does that affect a race like the US Senate between Andy Kim and Curtis Marshall?

So statewide races are really the tough nut for Republicans to crack in new Jersey, because you're dealing with that million voter advantage that Democrats have, or nearly a million voter advantage that Democrats have.

And that's the one race that, is is the toughest for Republicans.

You mentioned how long it's been since a Republican was voted.

We voted for a Republican candidate for president.

It's been even longer for the US Senate since 1972 was the last time.

So it's the statewide race.

You have to respect somebody who makes a go of it, as Curtis has.

But Andy Kim certainly has the wind at his back.

And, as long as he is doing as well as the generic Democrat or better and the pre-election polling, the small amount that we've seen so far is that he's running ahead of Democrats.

Then he should be okay.

Micah.

We'll see who here on Tuesday for a long night, as we expect.

And make sure you keep it right here for NJ decides 2024 Election Night coverage.

We're live starting at 8 p.m. with all the results.

Reporters will be fanned out across the state at campaign headquarters, and we'll have in-studio political analysis with Micah and many others.

That's next Tuesday, November 5th, right here on NJ, PBS, also streaming on our YouTube channel and on our digital site.

Until that very last race is called.